The Roll Up: September 30, 2025 

TL;DR:  As Americans prepare for what now seems like an inevitable federal government shutdown, reaction on social media is taking on some new dimensions when compared to the last shutdown in 2018 and 2019. Rolli IQ analysis shows much more engagement with the topic on social media this time around, as well as more concern about its effects on the American people. Here's what we know:

Unheard of before 1980, federal government shutdowns as a result of party conflicts in Congress have become a regular occurence in Washington, happening every five to eight years over the last three and half decades. The latest showdown is coming to a head as Democrats have focused on protecting health care against GOP cuts, with Republicans refusing to budge on the matter. 

While social media is a shifting landscape with changes in usage and focus coming rapidly, it is possible to use Rolli IQ's historical analytical abilities to compare the period leading up to this potential shutdown to the same span of time leading into the 35-day shutdown in 2018 and 2019. This analysis compares September 22-29, 2025 to December 13-20, 2018, the week leading up to the last shutdown.

The first and more noticeable difference between the two periods is the volume of engagement. In 2018, total engagements for that week reached just shy of 350,000.

Rolli IQ Sentiment Summary for the 2018 government shutdown

That number seems small--and it is, compared to the engagement we're seeing leading up to the possible 2025 shutdown.

In the past week, Rolli IQ shows an engagement level at nearly 2.5 million instances--more than seven times the volume of 2018.

Rolli IQ Sentiment Summary for the 2025 government shutdown

That difference may be due to a number of factors. First, we've seen social media become more politicized in the nearly seven years between shutdowns. Twitter/X, the main driver of engagements in both years, has moved right politically and has attracted more users who want to post about politics. We're also seeing a difference in users' attitudes toward Donald Trump, who was in his first term in 2018 and is now in his second term, presiding over both shutdowns. Though the shutdown is officially the responsibility of Congress, Trump looms large as a figure in each shutdown and his image now is far more polarizing than it was in 2018.

That polarization may be most evident in the Rolli IQ Emotion Map from each period. The 2018 map shows a wide variety of reactions--none of them happy--ranging from anger (red lines) to disgust (pea green lines) to sadness (blue lines) and fear (yellow lines). There was also a large number of what Rolli IQ considers "irrelevant" posts, those that tag the shutdown but address other issues.

Rolli IQ Emotion Map for the 2018 government shutdown

Comparing the 2018 Rolli IQ Emotion Map to the 2025 version (below) reveals some stark differences. First, it's clear the emotions have largely coalesced into just two dimensions: anger and disgust. That anger may be focused at either party--or the president himself--but there is definitely an underlying level of anger for many users. Gone in 2025 are the irrelevant posts, meaning users are much more focused on the potential shutdown than they were in 2018. 

Rolli IQ Emotion Map for the 2025 government shutdown

Looking at the trending topics across social media, there are both similarities and differences when comparing 2018 to 2025. Employing the Rolli IQ Topic Tree, the most noticeable trend is the tendency to use social media to put the blame on the other party. Multiple posts in each year pointed the finger at the other side, trying to tag the other party with the responsibility for the shutdown.  

Rolli IQ Topic Tree excerpt for the 2018 government shutdown

Turning to 2025, while Rolli IQ shows the top posters have changed, the comments clearly mirror each other across time. 

Rolli IQ Topic Tree excerpt for the 2025 government shutdown

One change involves the focus on who would be affected by the shutdown. Rolli IQ analysis found many instances in 2018 focused on the impact on federal workers. Posters seemed angry that the cost of the political fight would be taken out on workers, particularly because the shutdown was set to hit right at the end of the year holiday period. 

Rolli IQ Topic Tree excerpt for the 2018 government shutdown

Flash forward to 2025 and the concerns about government workers seem to have mostly evaporated. That could be due to not being in a holiday period, but the current pending shutdown also comes after the demonization of federal workers through the DOGE cuts and the current threat from the president to fire--rather than just furlough--workers if the shutdown happens. Democrats have spun the focus instead toward the impact on the American people if the shutdown happens, as well as the lack of health care for many--their signature issue to force the shutdown. Republicans have countered with blame on the Democrats for forcing a shutdown that would harm hard-working Americans.

Rolli IQ Topic Tree excerpt for the 2025 government shutdown

Healthcare comes through Rolli IQ analysis as a main topic of its own in 2025, showing some success by the Democrats to identify with this issue. That gamble could pay off with the public if it convinces people to value healthcare legislation over the inconvenience of a shutdown, or it could pay off for Republicans who want to blame the shutdown on the Dems.

Rolli IQ Topic Tree excerpt for the 2025 government shutdown

That single-issue approach is different from what we saw on social media in 2018, when multiple issues came to the top, including Donald Trump's insistence on building a border wall and concerns about the impact on the stock market.

Rolli IQ Topic Tree excerpt for the 2018 government shutdown

The bottom line is that the analysis using Rolli IQ to look at social media posts regarding the 2018-19 government shutdown and the looming 2025 shutdown shows a sharpening of emotions and tactics as the stakes seem higher this time around that we've seen in the past.